Yesterday, in the highly anticipated Makerfield by-election, Labour mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham beat out challengers to become an MP picking up 54.8 percent of the vote. The Greens, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, and Restore Britain and Reform UK all stood candidates to varying levels of success.
After steamrolling through local elections and picking up 1,452 council seats, Reform UK continued with their momentum picking up 34.5 percent of the vote, an increase of 2.7 percent from 2024. Restore Britain after picking up every seat in their Great Yarmouth stronghold garnered 6.8 percent of the vote. In the run up to the election anti-labor pundits worried that Reform UK and Restore Britain would split the vote and allow labor to win.
It turns out the split vote didn't matter. Both the greens and the conservatives severely underperformed. Half of the old guard has fallen it seems. They failed to garner more than 2.2 percent of the vote. Perhaps the biggest underperformer of the night was the Greens. Zach Polanski is still marred in controversy and in UK biggest test versus labor, the “neo-labour” party flopped earning .7 percent of the vote.
This election was triggered because former Labour MP Josh Simons resigned in an effort to allow Burnham to challenge for Prime Minister of the the United Kingdom. Since the local elections around three weeks ago Labor members have called for prime minister Starmer’s head. In recent polling, Burnham is the only politician in the labor party who potentially has the backing to mount a challenge against Starmer.
Burnham's ability to gain in Makerfield tells Labour leadership he may be the only hope for the party. If he were to replace Starmer he could potentially call for a snap election.
Burnham’s political positions are murky. He represents center-left populism with views that scatter all over the place. In the past, he was an advocate for rejoining the European Union. He wants to establish more long-term connections with the EU to stimulate growth and remove trade barriers. In a Wednesday interview he said he would consider tougher immigration measures. He spoke about how he would like to shift power away from London.
Burnham’s win leaves Starmer’s hold on 10 Downing Street in limbo and in the next few weeks we will likely see some resolution as Starmer has offered an olive branch to Burnham. It might be too late for Starmer.