Emily Gregory was victorious in Florida’s State House 87 district. She won with 51.1% of the vote compared to Jon Maples’ 48.9. In most cases, a Democratic flip in a local special election would not raise any eyebrows, especially this year. However, Florida’s State House 87 district is home to President Donald Trump’s resort Mar-a-Lago. This shocking win continues the Democratic party’s winning streak.
What makes Gregory’s win even worse for Republicans is that Republicans have +9% net voter registration in the district. There are far fewer Democrats than Republicans, which means that Democrats came out in huge numbers in order to win this district. Even in red states, Democrats are energized to vote while Republicans put up less-than-impressive performances.
Gregory’s win was not the only Democratic overperformance in Florida. In Florida’s 14th Senate District, Brian Nathan beat out Josie Tomkow by 0.6 points. This was Republican Lt. Governor Jay Collins’ district, and a flip by Democrats. Once again, Democrats overperformed their voter registration numbers. Republicans have +10% net-registration in this district. Tomkow also raised over $1,000,000, compared to Nathan’s $100,000. The seat was previously won by Republicans by 12 points, and was +7.4% for Donald Trump in 2024. All the odds pointed to Tomkow, but Nathan rode a string of historic Democratic overperformances to victory.
Although a special election for state congress is not incredibly indicative of midterm performance, it should still be a warning for Republicans. Republicans have flipped zero state legislative seats in Trump’s term, compared to over 30 flipped by Democrats.
If Republicans are unable to turn the tide, they will certainly be defeated in the House and will likely be defeated in the Senate. Democrats cannot get overly comfortable with their electoral wins. Special elections, especially state level ones, are not going to give an accurate picture of their voters. They can point to trends in the general electorate, but they won’t come close to guaranteeing victory.