In 2024, Texas Senate District 9 was a +17 district for Trump. The district has been solidly red since the early 90s, and by no small margin. Since its redrawing in 1992, no Democrat has ever won a Texas Senate election. Senate races are regularly won by Republicans by 10-30 points, if a Democrat even decides to run at all. Last night, however, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won by 14 points.
Not only did Democrats flip a solidly red state, they outperformed 2024 by nearly 35%. This is not a small district either–nearly a million people live in District 9, and 100,000 people voted in this runoff election.
To make matters even worse for Texas Republicans, polling shows that 51% of District 9 voters are Republican, while only 35% are Democrats. The final polling result was 57% for the Democrat, Rehmet, compared to 43% for the Republican. This means that voters who would have usually considered themselves to be Republicans or Independents were persuaded to vote for the Democratic candidate. This is not just a matter of Democrats showing up to the polls en masse, but Republicans and Independents voting for a Democrat.
This shocking victory was likely fueled by growing frustration among the Left that has been seen clearly in the nearly unanimous pattern of Democratic overperformances across the country. This victory in Texas should send a chill down the spines of Republican political strategists and politicians running in the midterms. This win shows that even solidly red states are not immune to being flipped to solidly blue, and that if Republicans want to win they need to find a different strategy.
So far, the Republican party’s most “innovative” strategy for the midterms has been to pretend as if Trump is running for President, and to hold rallies and conventions with him at the center. The belief is that the Trump-centric Republican party falls apart during the midterms, or whenever his name isn’t on the ballot.
However, with the Democratic overperformances, like the one in Texas Senate District 9, is this the correct strategy? Putting Trump on the ballot could have the opposite effect as the intended one, motivating Democrats to come to the polls even more than previously. Trump isn’t exactly popular with Independents either, with a recent 63% disapproval from Public Policy Polling. Trump’s brand name is not a good one at the moment. If the economy slides before the midterms, he will be solely to blame.
The recent Texas state senate race has shown how strong the Democrats are going into the midterms, and could be a taste of what's to come during the Texas Senate race in November.