Recent polls have suggested that Latino voters had a growing approval rating of Trump. An ActiVote poll from early February showed 44% approval and 52% disapproval, considerably high for a group that Trump has targeted throughout his term. This came off the back of the arrest of Maduro, which was very popular in many parts of the Latino community. Most polls from January and February showed results that were roughly the same as the ActiVote poll.
However, following the Texas senate primary, these polling numbers have been proven to be too optimistic. Latino voters carried Talarico to a primary win against Jasmine Crockett, and they turned out in huge numbers for Democrats.
Turnout in Latino-majority counties increased from 7.7% in the 2024 Democratic primary to 13.1% in the 2026 Democratic primary. However, in the Republican primary, turnout in Latino-majority counties decreased from 8.3% in 2024 to 7.3% in 2026. Total Democratic turnout also doubled from 2024, showing that this pattern is held among nearly all groups, not just Latinos. Republican statewide turnout decreased.
Democratic Latino voters hit a record low in 2024, and it appears that those losses have been recovered. 72% of Latino voters disapproval of ICE’s actions, and feel that the administration has gone too far to combat illegal immigration. Latino voters showed up in record numbers for Trump, but their trust has been eradicated due to Trump decisions on immigration.
However, it is worth pointing out that the results from a Texas primary do not indicate results for the rest of the country. Furthermore, Latino turnout increased at a slightly lower level than it did for all Democratic voters. This does not indicate that the Latino vote has entirely flipped to the left, and Democrats still have a lot of support and trust that must be won back in order to create a serious coalition.
What this result does show is that the multiracial Republican coalition that briefly emerged in 2024 has fallen apart. Republicans can no longer expect Latino voters to turn out in the same numbers they did in 2024. This problem is self imposed, as the current administration's overreaching immigration reform has only alienated Latino voters, 59% of whom have said they have recently heard or seen ICE arrests in their communities.
The Latino vote is key to rebuilding the coalition that Democratic candidates have won within past elections. Rejecting ICE and Trump’s current immigration reforms will give Democrats a massive electoral boost in the midterms, and beyond.