Working class, White Americans carried Donald Trump to victory in both 2016 and 2024. He won ⅔ of the white, working-class vote in all three of his presidential elections, and they make up a large portion of his MAGA base. However, polls indicate that his support among this group has seriously declined since his win in 2024.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll from April indicated that Trump now has just 44% support among this group, a record low for both his first and second terms. His support has also declined significantly since the beginning of the Iran War.
A CNN poll in February 2025 showed 63% support, while another in May 2026 showed just 49% support. This was a shift from +26% net approval to -2%.
A majority of White, working-class voters said that Trump cares about their needs and problems either “not much” or “not at all”. A CBS News poll showed a decline of 44% in the net-approval of Trump among working-class voters.
Much of this decline is the result of economic disappointment. 67% of working-class White Americans say that the Iran War has worsened their finances. However, what makes this decline unique is that it was not represented in Trump’s first term.
Working-class, White approval of Trump stayed at around 70% for the entirety of Trump’s first term, even during the short recession during Covid. The fact that their support has declined so significantly is shocking in comparison to their unwavering support during Trump’s first term.
This is not good news for the Republican party as the midterm elections draw closer. Without the vote of working-class White Americans, Republicans will struggle to retain their majorities. However, this should not necessarily be cause for celebration in DNC offices. These disaffected voters are unlikely to vote for Democratic candidates, and will probably abstain from voting entirely.
The Democratic brand is extremely damaged among this constituency, and Democrats will need to make a convincing enough case to these voters. A more likely scenario is that Republicans will be able to win back their trust now that the Iran war is over through populist economic packages.
If Donald Trump wants to win back these voters, he must return his focus to the economy. Statements such as: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation”, as he said in May, will not play well with voters and will only hurt him in the midterms. Trump is running the country like the midterms aren’t months away, and unless he can return his focus, Republicans will not stand a chance.