Abdul El-Sayed is running in one of the most watched races in America, for one of Michigan’s Senate seats. He is a progressive candidate running in a state that, although blue, is not famous for being progressive.
Despite this, El-Sayed has become the clear leader in the race. He is running against moderate Haley Stevens, who has spent almost 40 million dollars on ad buys since the start of her campaign (El-Sayed has spent under two million).
The Michigan Senate race will be the biggest test so far on whether progressive politics can succeed on a national level. With the primary victories of progressives for three New York’s congress districts, as well as Melat Kiros’ primary victory in Colorado, progressive victories have begun sweeping the nation. However, there has yet to be a non-incumbent progressive who is victorious at the Senate level.
El-Sayed has led for seven straight polls, leading by as much as 19 points at the end of June. He received the rare endorsement of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez today, which could propel him to victory. AOC has abstained from most endorsements, notably declining to endorse any of the progressive New York congressional primary candidates or her former chief of staff in San Francisco.
The biggest obstacle to El-Sayed’s victory is money. El-Sayed is being outspent by organizations to his right flank, most notably AIPAC. Although his campaign has succeeded thus far with relatively little ad spend, he may need to increase his fundraising to compete with Haley Stevens’ massive budget.
He must also convince moderate Democrats in Michigan, of which there are many, that he is the right candidate for them. Stevens may seem like the safer, less controversial choice than El-Sayed, whose highest political office has been county-level. He is an untested politician, and does not have the same resume as his congresswoman opponent.
His inexperience may end up working for him, as many Democrats have ousted incumbents in search of change in their party.
His final test, should he win the primary, will be in November. A Republican opponent could convince moderate voters that El-Sayed is a radical who cannot be trusted with a senate position.