On the morning of the New Jersey NJ-11 Democratic primary, progressive candidate Analilia Mejia had a 1% chance of winning on Kalshi. During election day, dozens of newspapers and poll analysis websites, including DDHQ, projected her opponent Tom Malinowski as the winner. Even the Democratic National Committee congratulated Malinowski on his apparent win. Now it seems all but certain that Mejia, not Malinowski, will be the Democratic candidate in the general election this November.
This shocking political upset was made possible for many reasons, one being the wins that progressives have racked up across the country. In recent months, the Democratic party has had its members shift further left. Recently, more Democrats described themselves as “liberal” rather than “moderate” according to a Gallup poll, a record high. Mejia rode off of this political wave, as well as endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders and AOC, to her apparent primary victory.
Another reason for her victory was AIPAC's rampant ad campaign against Tom Malinowski having the opposite effect as intended. AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, spent over two million dollars on ad campaigns against Malinowski, who has stated that the U.S. should maintain its relationship with Israel but distribute aid on a case-by-case basis. These ads painted Malinoski as a pro-Trump Democrat, with an attempt to prop up pro-Israel candidate Tanesha Way instead. Not only did these tactics fail to get Mejia elected, they were likely what gave Mejia her victory. Mejia is the only candidate in the race to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza as a genocide, and has opposed antisemitism bills that would limit criticism of Israel. AIPAC’s ad strategy ironically caused the least pro-Israel candidate to win.
Mejia has a strong chance of victory in the general election, but must still face off against the Republican candidate to win. The special election is in current governor Mikie Sherill’s district, one that was previously red but for years has had elections won by Democrats. Mejia won’t have a cake walk to victory, but she certainly won't have to fight her way.
On Kalshi, Mejia has a 98% chance of winning the primary election and a 93% chance of winning the general election against a Republican candidate. Interestingly enough, the chance of a Democrat winning the general election has dropped by 5% since Mejia became the apparent winner, showing that her progressive policies come at a slightly higher risk of losing.