A recent YouGov poll showed that Trump’s aspirations of controlling Greenland are not popular with the American public. Taking Greenland by force had an overall -72% net approval, with a -40% net approval even among Republicans. The approval among Independents was even worse, with a -80% net approval showing that across every single demographic, Trump’s suggestion that the US could take Greenland by force is not a realistic outcome for the American people.
There were more favorable polling results(although still significantly underwater) for the US purchasing Greenland. Although the issue had -40% net-approval among all who were polled, there was +28% net-approval among Republicans. Republicans seem to agree that buying Greenland would be beneficial for America, although this issue polls worse among Republicans than most. There was -50% net-approval among Independents, showing that the popularity of purchasing Greenland is contained within the MAGA base. The average American who is not a die-hard Trump supporter is not in favor of purchasing Greenland.
This poll reveals the continued strength of Trump’s core base, but it also shows its increasing isolation. The fact that an issue with -40% net-approval can be very favorable among Republicans means that Trump’s core base who largely agree with whatever policies he puts in place remains intact. However, this base is becoming increasingly isolated as Trump’s policies become more and more extreme.
Trump’s foreign and domestic policy has become far more intense since the beginning of the year, and his foray into fights with America’s allies has the potential to cost him the midterms. The more and more isolated the MAGA base becomes, the less likely it is for pro-Trump candidates to win in November without Trump’s name on the ballot.
If Trump wants any chance of retaining the House in November, let alone the Senate, he must turn down the temperature of his current policies. It's clear that although they poll well within Trump’s core base, they leave valuable Independents confused and untrustworthy of the administration.
In the past six months, the net-favoribility among Independents has creeped closer and closer to that of Democrats, and further and further away from that of Republicans. Trump needs to realize that he cannot win elections solely with his MAGA base, and that winning over these increasingly unconvinced Independents is the only way to retain his power.
At this point in time, is it possible that Trump can reverse the trend among Independents and keep control of Congress, or at the very least the Senate? The answer is yes, and the only way this is possible is by focusing on economic issues that voters rank as the most important issue they face going into November. If he takes a pragmatic approach to the issues that Americans face, and ends his obsession with fruitless foreign policy quarrels, he can very likely win over these Independents.
This hypothetical is unlikely considering Trump’s reckless nature and unchecked power, and it seems more likely that Trump will use the Fed to bring down the interest rate and allow for a short-term economic boost before the midterm elections. Unfortunately, as Trump’s term enters its second year, it seems as if Trump has become increasingly uninterested in the struggles of the average American, and more interested in his foreign dealmaking and pot-stirring. If he continues down this path, he will most assuredly lose the midterms.
Or, of course, he can follow through on his presumed joke to cancel the midterm elections and end American democracy.