A recent Harvard Caps/HarrisX poll shows where Americans stand on ICE and deportations. 63% of voters oppose deporting undocumented immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for many years and do not have a criminal record. However, 82% support deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed serious crimes and 58% support deporting undocumented immigrants who have overstayed their visa.
The Republicans and Democrats can both learn from this poll. For the Republicans, it's clear that Americans are not as close to their immigration policies as they may think. The most disheartening poll result for the Trump administration may be in terms of the details of ICE’s operation, with 80% of voters supporting ICE identifying themselves and 86% supporting ICE wearing bodycams. ICE is currently masked, and the organization does not wear bodycams. On top of this, 55% of Americans disapprove of how immigration agencies are acting in U.S. cities.
The public does not support ICE or the Trump administration's radical immigration goals, especially concerning ICE’s operations. However, they do support the general goal of the organization that has been abstracted by the Trump administration. The public largely supports deportation in extreme circumstances, as well as less extreme but still illegal ones such as visa overstays. However, there is less support for deporting those with no criminal record and years of living in the U.S. with contribution to the economy and country. If the Trump administration can tap into these opinions on deportation instead of their current actions with ICE, immigration can return to being a winning issue for the Trump administration.
For Democrats, they can learn that the public isn't where they stand either. Democrats do not have a cohesive message on immigration, an issue that will remain extremely important in 2028, and even in November when the midterm elections occur. Yes, voters do not support ICE’s actions in Minnesota and other states, but voters remember Joe Biden's perceived failure to control the border. Immigration is a tough issue for the Democrats.
The party that has labelled itself as the party of inclusion has obviously struggled to propose policies that exclude people, or even remove them from the United States. However, these are the kinds of policies that voters want, and changing the Democratic immigration policies will have the second effect of showing change in the Democratic party as a whole, something that is absolutely necessary in future elections.
The Democratic immigration issue is also the larger Democratic issue. The Democrats do not have a solid platform for the party as a whole, except for being anti-Trump. They can begin to solve this by addressing immigration, one of their least agreed upon issues. The Republicans can regain popularity by going softer on immigrationn, securing the border and carrying out some deportations but only for those with a criminal record.