Nebraska Democrats are rejoicing as on January 22, 2026, a poll from Lake Research Partners shows that 2024 Senate Candidate and labor leader Dan Osborn only trails incumbent Pete Ricketts by 1 point. If he’s elected in November, it would be the first time a Republican lost a Senate race in Nebraska since 2006. Breaking up the political order in a deep-red state could be a model for Democrats in 2028.
Nebraska is one of the most conservative states in the union. In 2024, Nebraskans voted for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris by a margin of 23 points, and he carried 4 out of the 5 electoral votes possible in the state. In the last century, Nebraska has only been won by a Democrat 3 times, and two were FDR the 30s. Even the Democrats are conservative there. Ben Nelson, the last Democratic Senator in Nebraska, was considered one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate until his retirement in 2012.
In 2024, Dan Osborn sought out to change the political status quo. He used his experience as an industrial labor organizer to rally working-class Nebraskans behind an Independent populist campaign that relied on progressive fiscal policy and conservative, family oriented social policy. And while he didn’t beat Republican Deb Fischer, he won 47% of the vote, outperforming Kamala Harris by almost 9 points.
If Osborn is elected to Congress, it’s unclear who he’ll align himself with. Beating a Republican could isolate him from the broader right-wing bloc, but his social policy could see him rejected by progressive members of the Democratic Party. Perhaps most controversially, he is a supporter of legislation that would expand border patrol and work to end illegal immigration. While many ideological purists on the left would see Osborn’s immigration policy as an immediate disqualifier, to win in 2028, (and more importantly, pass meaningful legislation for working class Americans) Democrats may have to adopt more socially conservative policies to appeal to the majority of Americans.
We at Tally are sure that affordability will be the most important factor in the 2026 midterms and potentially the 2028 election. If either party wants to win, they should look at the last 20 years of American politics and see that populists rarely lose. The winning campaign will appeal to the wants and needs of the majority of Americans; protecting small businesses, creating jobs for the unemployed, and, as taboo as it sounds, rejecting identity politics and reducing illegal immigration. The Democratic Party has lost the trust and the support of Middle America. To win in 2028, they have to earn it back.