It's been some time since our last senate prediction map, and there have been many changes in electoral odds on Kalshi. Nate Silver's predictions shifted the markets significantly last month, and with the midterms just two months away, these markets are generating more volume than ever. To see the change since our last article, toggle on "Change from Jun 10".
Overview:
There hasn't been a clear winner or loser in the past few months, but there have been many shifts in key swing states like Texas, Maine, and Michigan. Primaries are wrapped up in every state, and contenders will now face off in the general election against the candidate from the opposing party.
Good news for Democrats:
Democrats have seen some signficiant shifts in key states. The closest races will be in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine. Democrats have seen positive shifts in three out of these five.
One of the biggest (and most suprising) shifts has been in Texas, which for years has been considered a solidly Republican state. That is, until James Talarico entered the competition and proved that a Democrat could poll shockingly well.
Texas is now almost dead even, with Republicans taking a slight edge over Democrats. However, at one point Democrats had a slight lead over Republicans following the publication of Nate Silver's midterm analysis.
The most newsworthy primary in the country was in Maine, where Graham Platner looked like the de facto candidate until serious allegations of sexual assault came out against him.
Interestingly, Platners fall from grace actually improved Democratic odds of winning the state, by a solid amount. Platner had a controversial past even before the allegations came out, and his progressive platform could have lost moderate votes in Maine.
The new candidate Troy Jackson is another progressive, with a less controversial past that will fare better with voters. He has regained a lot of the prediction market ground that was lost due to Graham Platner candidacy, and returned the state to a lean blue prediciton.
Democrats have also seen positive shifts in states like Alaska, Georgia, and North Carolina. North Carolina and Alaska would both be flips from Republican seats, although Alaska remains far closer than Georgia.
Good news for Republicans:
Republicans have also seen shifts in their favor in the past few months. Florida and Louisiana both shifted 10 points in their direction, although these are not considered swing states. They also picked up considerable gains in Michigan and in Ohio.
Michigan has had one of the most brutal primary seasons in the country. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed faced off against moderate Haley Stevens (who received massive amounts of ad spend from AIPAC).
El-Sayed was victorious, but his victory appears to have soured Democratic chances somewhat. His progressive platform and controversial statements in the past have played well in Republican attack odds.
El-Sayed also won the election by a shockingly small amount. Polls predicted that he would win by as much as 20%, but the final count put him over Stevens by less than 1%
This means that El-Sayed must convince half of the Democratic voter base (10% of this half has stated that they would vote for Republican Mike Rogers over El-Sayed) in order to win the general election.
Republicans have, for the most part, held onto their overall electoral chances of winning the Senate, remaining slighly favored over the Democrats. They have picled up gains in Ohio, a swing state, and in Nebraska.