In the last week, there's been noticeable changes in the Kalshi probabilities for key states. By toggling on "Change from Feb 6" on our Senate Prediction map, you'll be able to see the shift in probabilities for various states in the midterm Senate elections.
The most noticeable differences are in Montana, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Ohio, with all but Ohio shifting red. While Montana and Oklahoma are probably not toss-up states, and their Republican streak in the senate won't end, there has been a sharp shift in probabilities in the last seven days. However, Nebraska is a different story, being a key state that Democrats hope to flip with Independent Dan Osborn polling surprisingly well in the last few months.
Good news for Republicans:
Nebraska has had its odds shift 8.3% towards Republicans in just the past week. Holding Nebraska would be a huge relief for Republicans, who certainly need to hold the Senate in order for continued progress of Trump's policies.
Its uncertain what caused this red shift. There have been no new polls in the Nebraska senate race in the past week, but the market still swung towards the Republican candidate.
Republicans also received a boost in Texas of around 3%. This is good news for Republicans, who must hold Texas in November in order to cling on to a majority. Some of this may come from the close contest between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico. Polls have shown that Talarico is the more electable candidate against possible Republican.
However, a recent poll has shown that Crockett may be more favored to win the Democratic primary. Crockett winning the primary and running as a Democrat in the general would be much more favorable to Republicans, which is why the odds may have tilted in their favor.
Republicans have also held their ground in key states such as Iowa, and most of their safe Republican seats, and gained some ground in Maine, which leans blue.
Good news for Democrats:
Although this week seems to have more upsides for Republicans, Democrats have also racked up a few wins.
The key state of Ohio, which currently leans red, shifted over 5% towards the Democrats. The race in Ohio is very close, and is certainly a toss up at this point in time. Democrats need as many wins as they can get, and the race in Ohio is promising for the Democrats in November. There hasn't been polling since 2025, but it would be interesting to see whether there have been any shifts recently
Democrats also saw gains in Michigan, which has turned from a tossup to a state that is strongly leaning blue. An extremely competitive primary with no clear leader could give the Democrats some difficulty, but Michigan won't be a knife fight for the Democrat that wins the primary. The probability in Michigan is in the Democratic party's favor, but only once the primary is decided will there be a more clear probability for the state.
Democrats also had small gains in swing states such as Alaska, and in lean-blue states like Georgia and New Hampshire.
The summary:
This week showed small wins for Republicans, and even smaller ones for Democrats, but there was still a lot of interesting information. Primary polling for both parties is the primary reason for changes in polls, and candidate electability will be a big issue in states like Texas. Candidates that fare well in partisan primaries aren't necessarily electable candidates in general elections, and once primaries are decided in the coming months we'll see a clearer picture of the Senate midterms.
Here's the current Democrat probability for winning the midterms:
This is still extremely close. The Democrats have gained 3% in the past week, and 20% in the past year.
To finish, here's a chart of all of the Kalshi probabilities for individual states: