Following the recent primaries, there have been some shifts in the Kalshi probabilities for the senate races in each state. Although this wasn't the most eventful week in terms of changes, there's still many interesting shifts that should be covered. By clicking “Change from Feb 22”, you can see how the map has shifted since our last prediction map.
Good news for Republicans:
The best news for Republicans, and the biggest news this week, was the Texas primary. Democratic changes got a brief boost after Talarico (the more electable of the two Democratic candidates) avoided a runoff and won the Democratic primary. However, this boost was reversed when Donald Trump hinted at an endorsement in the Republican primary.
The Republican primary between Paxton and Cornyn went to a runoff following a razor-thin win by Coryn that was not a majority, and therefore will lead to a runoff on May 26. It looked like the runoff would be a close race between John Cornyn, the incumbent senator who may have a better chance of beating Talarico, and Ken Paxton, the current Attorney General. This close race would be great for Democrats, as the Republicans would look divided while Democrats organized around one candidate.
Trump is expected to endorse Cornyn, which would almost guarantee his win, but Paxton has stated he will remain in the race unless John Thune removes the filibuster to pass the SAVE act. Following Trump's announcement that he would likely endorse Cornyn, Republican odds of winning the state received a 4% boost.
This may also be a result of Crockett seeming hesitant to campaign with Talarico in the general election, which could harm Talarico's performance among Black Texans.
Looking at the change from Feb. 22 on the map, it's clear that Republicans have seen slight gains in most states. This is a small, short term win for Republicans and doesn't reflect much on their chances in November, but certainly isn’t bad news.
Good news for Democrats
Although Democrats are showing up in record numbers in many ongoing primaries, there hasn’t been much change in their odds of winning individual states. However, there has been a shift in their overall odds of winning the Senate.
Democrats currently have a 44% chance of winning the senate, up 4% in the short amount of time since our last prediction. This is likely due to the fact that Democrats turned out in larger numbers in the Texas primaries than Republicans, an unprecedented performance in a state like Texas. Democrats have beaten the odds for senate control, going from a 17% chance to a 44% chance in the span of just a year.
More good news for Democrats can be seen in Maine, where they’ve seen a 2% boost. Graham Planter, the progressive and oftentimes controversial candidate, has made himself the clear frontrunner against Maine governor Janet Mills in the primary. He currently sits at roughly 80% odds of winning the primary on Kalshi.