There has been a lot of electoral news this week, and some interesting changes in the Kalshi probabilities for each state in the midterms. The seat totals remain the same as last week, but there has been a mixed bag of both good and bad news for both Democrats and Republicans since our last update.
Note: Democrats need 51 seats for a majority as Vice President JD Vance acts as the tiebreaking vote.
Overview:
Most states saw minor changes in probability, but there were differences in key states such as Texas and Ohio. Our projected seat distribution has now hit 51/50 which would give Democrats control of the Senate. However, the odds of either party controlling the Senate remain even as many seats are extremely close to 50/50.
Good news for Democrats:
Democrats were able to increase their slight hold on Alaska, which they have flipped from being slightly favored for Republicans. They now near a 60% chance of winning, with Mary Peltola usually polling slightly ahead of opponent Dan Sullivan. Alaska is a seat that Democrats certainly need to win in order to get Senate control, and for now they've been able to keep the seat in their favor.
Democrats also saw huge gains in Ohio, and are now projected to win the seat, increasing their gain since last week. This comes as Vivek Ramaswamy struggles to pull his campaign together, with Ramaswamy polling only 6 points ahead in union-member households, dismal numbers for an Ohio Republican. Ramaswamy will amost certainly win the primary, but he has lost the national stage he held during 2023-2025 due to comments surrounding H1B visa workers that garnered pushback among Republicans.
Democrats have held on to most of their leads, making some strong gains this week in Montana. Montana will most likely be a Republican state in this election, but Democrats have gained some small ground.
Good news for Republicans:
Since last week, Republicans have been able to hold the majority of their states, with very few decreases in swing states. They've gained a slight edge in Texas, a state they certainly cannot afford to lose. The Democratic primary in Texas is over, and Talarico will go on to the general election with no opponents. The Republican primary is far from over, and the close race between Paxton and Cornyn will not help Republican chances, who will need a unified ticket to beat the moderate Talarico who could potentially pull Republican votes. Ken Paxton is currently favored to beat Cornyn, but only by 10 points.
Republicans have also been able to keep their odds of winning the Senate roughly even after Democrats became the favorites last week. The odds remain around 50/50.