There have been some interesting changes in the Kalshi probabilities for each state in the 2026 senate midterms. We currently predict that the Democrats will win 51 seats, and the Republicans 49, but 4 seats (Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa) are tossups that have one party only a hair above. To see the change since our last article, toggle on "Change from Apr 11".
Overview:
This week has seen only slight shifts in probabilities, aside from Kansas which shifted heavily in favor of Democrats. There was little change in the majority of states, but there was a lot of electoral news this week that we'll cover in the next section. Our prediction remains the same as last week.
Good news for Democrats:
The best news for Democrats and the biggest news of this week is the swing in Kansas. The GOP has not lost a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, and until a few days ago that pattern appeared to continue in the 2026 midterms. However, A Tavern Research poll surveying 1,032 likely voters in Kansas found democrat-aligned pastor Adam Hamilton tied with incumbent Republican Robert Marshall. This increased the probability of the Democratic party winning Kansas by more than 10%. However, this shouldn't be enough to entertain a Kansas flip just yet. Hamilton missed the deadline for filing to run as a Democrat, and has not announced a Senate campaign. This is just one poll, and Hamilton will most likely not be facing off Marshall in a 1-on-1 race, if they face off at all. This is, at the very least, an indication that many safe red states in the midterms might not be as safe as Republicans think.
Democrats have also seen slight gains in Texas, following an extremely bitter Republican primary. Republicans have found difficulty rallying behind either incumbent Senator John Cornyn, or Attorney General Ken Paxton. These primary woes grew even worse this week when a TPOR poll found that 24% of Cornyn voters would vote for Democrat Talarico if Cornyn doesn't win the primary. Only 10% of Paxton voters would vote for Talarico if Paxton isn't the nominee. If Paxton wins, which he is favored to on Kalshi, roughly 10% of the Republican electorate in Texas could flip to Talarico. Unless the Republicans can sort out their messy primary, Talarico will continue to gain an edge in Texas.
Democrats have held onto their 50/50 odds of winning the Senate on Kalshi. They remain very competitive in the Senate race, and have seen a decent amount of good news this week.
Good news for Republicans:
Although this week clearly favored the Democrats, Republicans also saw some promising probability shifts. In Alaska, a very close state that Republicans must hold onto in order to remain in control of the Senate, they saw a slight increase. Alaska remains a tossup state that leans towards Democrats. Democratic candidate Mary Peltola faced a challenge this week as Senator Lisa Murkowski, who endorsed her in 2022 and 2024, declined to endorse her this year. Murkowski is a Republican, so this isn't much of a surprise, but her endorsement could have helped her win over moderate Republicans.
Republicans also saw significant gains in North Carolina, which remains heavily in favor of Democrats. Democrat Roy Cooper has polled ahead by ~8 points, but his opponent Republican Michael Whatley lacks name recognition. 44% of poll respondents say they haven't heard of Whatley, and if he can increase his name recognition, he could become an even more competitive candidate and pose a greater threat to the Democratic party's chances of winning the Senate. GOP lawmakers have also launched a probe of Roy Cooper, which could hurt his chances.
Senate odds:
Senate odds remain around 50/50 at the moment, with Democrats having gained significant ground in the past few months.