There have been some interesting changes this week in the Kalshi probabilities for each state in the 2026 senate midterms. We currently predict that the Democrats will win 51 seats, and the Republicans 49, but 4 seats (Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa) are tossups that have one party only a hair above. To see the change since our last article, toggle on "Change from Apr 21".
Overview:
Although this week hasn't been the most eventful, there has been a clear shift across the board. Although Senate control odds on Kalshi have stayed essentially the same, Republicans have seen shifts this week in many major states, as you can see by the noticeable red map when selecting "Change from Apr 21". This is ususual, as for the majority of weeks we've been posting these maps, Democrats have seen increasingly favorable odds. It appears they may have plateaued for now.
Good News for Democrats:
Although Republicans were the winners of this week, there is some good news for Democrats. The odds have been virtually unchanged across the closest states, with Texas, Ohio, and Alaska all around 50/50, with two (Alaska and Ohio) giving slight favorability to Democrats. If Democrats can win at least two of these three seats, and win all of their projected seats, they will have control of the Senate. Keeping these probabilties the same is favorable for Democrats.
Closest races:
Democrats made decent gains in Kansas, with a 3.3% improvement in the past few weeks. Pastor Adam Hamilton, who is the pastor for the largest Methodist church in America, announced that he would be entering the race as a Democrat. Hamilton previously polled similarily to his Republican opponent. Kansas hasn't had a Democrat win a Senate race in nearly 100 years, and Republicans will very likely win, but there is some hope for Democrats in a state that has grown remarkably closer in the past month.
Good news for Republicans:
Republicans have a solid amount of good news this week. they've made decent gains in a few states, and there hasn't been a significant amount of change towards the Democrats.
Janet Mills, governor of Maine, dropped out of her senate race against progressive Graham Platner. Platner is one of the most progressive candidates who will be running for Senate, and will almost certainly be the candidate running against Susan Collins in the general. A progressive being the Democratic candidate might be risky in Maine, which is not an extremely liberal state (the incumbent senator Susan Collins is a Republican). Platner's campaign has also been plagued with controversy, which could decrease his odds in the general election. Republicans saw a small boost in their odds following her announcement of dropping out.
Although Georgia will likely vote Democratic, Republicans have seen a noticeable increase in their probability of winning. The primary is in just over two weeks, and the odds have closed in slightly on Jon Ossoff, who won his 2021 runoff with just 50.6% of the vote.
Senate control:
Senate control has remained roughly the same in the previous week, with almost 50/50 odds of either party winning control.