There have been some interesting changes this week in the Kalshi probabilities for each state in the 2026 senate midterms. We currently predict that the Democrats will win 51 seats, and the Republicans 49, but 5 seats (Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska) are tossups where the leading party only has a sight advantage. To see the change since our last article, toggle on "Change from May 3".
Overview:
As midterm elections in many states have passed, or are within weeks of happening, the frontrunners in each state have grown more clear. This has shifted the odds, with parties that have a moderate frontrunner generally seeing more favorable shifts than parties with a radical frontrunner. A good example of this is Michigan. Since Abdul El-Sayed took the lead in the Michigan Democratic priamry, the chance of Democrats winning the state decreased by 5%. El-Sayed is much further left than his opponents Mallory McMorrow and Haley Stevens, and his successful run might not be favorable for Democratic chances in the general election.
Good news for Democrats:
Democrats have seen their chances increase in many key states. The most notable example of this is in Nebraska, where Dan Osborn (who is an Independent, but aligns with Democrats) has seen his chances increase significantly in recent weeks. The Democratic primary was unusual, where candidate Cindy Burbank announced she would withdraw if she won in order to secure Democratic support for Osborn. Osborn has outraised Republican opponent Pete Ricketts, and the two are locked in an extremely tight race. An Independent hasn't won a Senate election in Nebraska since 1936, and a Democrat hasn't won a statewide election since 2006. The fact that the race is this close in a state that Trump won by double digits in both 2020 and 2024 should be worrying for Republican chances.
Although Texas has shifted to the right in the past few weeks, it should be noted that Paxton's recent primary win could benefit Democrats. Texas AG Ken Paxton beat out incumbent senator John Cornyn following Trump's last-minute endorsement. Paxton has had a past that is mired with controversy, compared to Cornyn who could more easily win as an incument. However, the fact that Paxton was able to win the primary by such a significant amount means that he still remains the favorite for the general in November.
Good news for Republicans:
Most states have shifted to the right in the past few weeks. The party's biggest wins have been the result of more radical Democratic candidates becoming the frontrunners in some key states. In Maine, Graham Platner will be unopposed by any other Democrats following Janet Mills dropping out. Platner has a controversial past, and had a Nazi tattoo for many years, but he is extremely popular in Maine.
Republicans also saw a positive shift in Michigan, where El-Sayeds previously mentioned success in the primary thus far has propelled a progressive candidate in a state that is not extremely progressive.
Republicans also saw their odds of winning the Senate increase slightly
Senate control:
Senate control remains similar to previous weeks. Republicans have gained a slight advantage.