Israel has become one of the most important issues in the midterms. The Israel question has affected both parties, becoming a political litmus test on the left and a divisive issue on the right. Since October 7th, favorability of Israel has rapidly deteriorated in tandem with the escalation of the war in Gaza.
This trend is repeated across almost all age groups and political affiliations, although it is most prominent among young Americans and Independents/Democrats. A recent Gallup poll found that 41% of Independents sympathize with Palestinians more, while only 30% sympathize with Israelis more. This is the first time in recorded history that Independents have sympathized more with Palestinians than Israelis. Compare that to just five years ago, when 51% of Independents sympathized with Israelis more than Palestinians.
Among Democrats, a record high 65% sympathize with Palestinians, while a record low 13% sympathize with Israelis. Palestinian sympathy has increased 20 points in just two years. However, Republicans continue to have more sympathy for Israelis, although that sympathy has decreased from 80% to 70% in the past two years.
These divides extend to different generations as well. 53% of those aged 18-34 sympathize with Palestinians. Compare that to those aged 55+, of which only 31% sympathize with Palestinians.
Interestingly enough, Israeli favorability still remains above Palestine (albeit by a small margin). Israel has 46% favorability, while Palestine has 37% favorability. Although favorability of the Palestinian state remains low, support for its independence is at record highs. Support for an independent Palestinian state has +30% favorability among Americans, up from +4% 10 years ago.
Americans also widely believe that Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza. A Quinnipiac University poll from last year found that 50% of Americans believed Israel was committing a genocide, while 35% did not.
For Democrats, this polling shows that the bipartisan support for Israel, especially in relation to foreign aid, must end. Democratic voters do not support Israel’s actions, and explicit support for the country will not be viewed favorably, specifically with young voters. Democrats must offer a different opinion than the Republicans on Israel that will resonate with both Democrats and Independents who they hope to win over.
Republicans should stick to what their base wants, and continue their support of Israel. Despite the fact that Israel-related foreign policy is causing a divide on the right (most noticeable among young Republicans and “groypers”), Israel remains a popular state and it’s approval has not dropped as significantly as it has among Independents and Republicans. The bigger issue for Republicans is that there are two completely opposite views on the party. Evangelicals are one of the largest zionist groups, who fight for an Israeli state because it would bring about biblical prophecies. Opposite from this group are Groypers and other far-right Republican youth groups, whose hatred for Israel is often a guise for antisemitism. Republicans have a less clear-cut way to navigate this topic, but polling still shows that support for Israel exists.