For months, Eric Swalwell, the US representative for California’s 14th congressional district has been the favorite to win California’s gubernatorial election. As recently as yesterday he had a 61% chance to win the election on Polymarket, outpacing opponents such as Matt Mahan and Tom Steyer. However, the head of advocacy group Gen-Z for Change announced that ‘credible women’ had described a ‘pattern of manipulation and abuse of power’ in his office.
There are reportedly over a dozen women who will share information with media outlets detailing their experiences with him. Following this news, Swalwell’s Polymarket odds decreased by 20%.
The greatest benefactor from this announcement was Tom Steyer, the progressive billionaire running for office as well. His odds of winning rose 16% on the news, and he’s now the clear second contender for the office.
Recent polls have put Steyer and Swalwell at a tie, with both currently at 13% of the vote. It's likely that both will advance from the jungle primary, and their real battle will be in the general election.
Swalwell’s platform is centered around gun control, healthcare, and government reform. He is a moderate Democrat who does not support universal healthcare, and is opposed to Citizens United. He supports universal background checks for gun purchases and debt-free public college.
Steyer is the more progressive candidate. He has the seemingly opposing qualities of being a billionaire and someone who pledges to fight for working class Californians, and he has been involved in many environmental efforts in the past. He made his fortune in Finance, but now has a progressive platform that is more left-leaning than any of his serious opponents.
The allegations against Swalwell are unproven, and his office has denied the claims. However, they could play a role in a state that ubiquitously votes Democratic in gubernatorial elections, a party that has taken advantage of many connections between the Trump administration and Jeffrey Epstein. If his accusers are able to provide credible proof of his actions, his campaign could be finished.
Despite the fact that the allegations are unproven, they have still decreased his odds to be the next governor of California. A candidate with serious sexual assault allegations will not be a strong contender in any Democratic election in 2026. However, there are still months left until the primary and many more until the general election, and Swalwell could still either disprove the allegations or win despite them.