Up until now, Tally has been a site that houses polling-backed opinion articles. In the future, we will also expand into making our own models and using them to make predictions. The first step of this is our new 2026 Senate Predictions Map, shown below. This map uses Kalshi data to show the probability that either party will win the senate seat in November.
Republican
Tossup
Democrat
Kalshi Senate 2026 — Mar 03, 2026 23:53 UTC
Alaska
45%
56%
Alabama
4%
97%
Arkansas
3%
98%
Colorado
95%
6%
Delaware
97%
4%
Florida
10%
90%
Georgia
80%
20%
Iowa
36%
64%
Idaho
4%
96%
Illinois
96%
4%
Kansas
15%
86%
Kentucky
7%
94%
Louisiana
8%
92%
Massachusetts
98%
2%
Maine
69%
32%
Michigan
78%
22%
Minnesota
88%
12%
Mississippi
6%
94%
Montana
4%
96%
North Carolina
80%
20%
Nebraska
29%
71%
New Hampshire
84%
16%
New Jersey
95%
5%
New Mexico
98%
3%
Ohio
35%
65%
Oklahoma
3%
98%
Oregon
96%
5%
Rhode Island
95%
5%
South Carolina
12%
88%
South Dakota
4%
97%
Tennessee
5%
96%
Texas
40%
61%
Virginia
96%
4%
West Virginia
3%
97%
Wyoming
3%
97%
States shaded red or blue indicate that one party is favored to win the respective states senate election, and states shaded in white are states that do not have a senate race.
Starting tomorrow, we will include an analysis on the map as well as how many seats we estimate each party will have after the election, and the odds for a Demcratic or Republican majority.