Up until now, Tally has been a site that houses polling-backed opinion articles. In the future, we will also expand into making our own models and using them to make predictions. The first step of this is our new 2026 Senate Predictions Map, shown below. This map uses Kalshi data to show the probability that either party will win the senate seat in November.
Republican
Tossup
Democrat
Kalshi Senate 2026 — Sep 26, 2026 22:35 UTC
Alaska
71%
30%
Alabama
4%
96%
Arkansas
7%
93%
Colorado
99%
2%
Delaware
99%
1%
Florida
10%
90%
Georgia
95%
6%
Iowa
44%
57%
Idaho
0%
100%
Illinois
98%
2%
Kansas
31%
69%
Kentucky
5%
95%
Louisiana
13%
87%
Massachusetts
99%
1%
Maine
63%
38%
Michigan
72%
28%
Minnesota
89%
11%
Mississippi
10%
90%
Montana
2%
98%
North Carolina
94%
6%
Nebraska
30%
70%
New Hampshire
86%
15%
New Jersey
98%
2%
New Mexico
97%
3%
Ohio
46%
54%
Oklahoma
2%
98%
Oregon
98%
2%
Rhode Island
99%
1%
South Carolina
13%
87%
South Dakota
0%
100%
Tennessee
2%
98%
Texas
61%
39%
Virginia
98%
2%
West Virginia
2%
98%
Wyoming
2%
98%
States shaded red or blue indicate that one party is favored to win the respective states senate election, and states shaded in white are states that do not have a senate race.
Starting tomorrow, we will include an analysis on the map as well as how many seats we estimate each party will have after the election, and the odds for a Demcratic or Republican majority.