Up until now, Tally has been a site that houses polling-backed opinion articles. In the future, we will also expand into making our own models and using them to make predictions. The first step of this is our new 2026 Senate Predictions Map, shown below. This map uses Kalshi data to show the probability that either party will win the senate seat in November.
Republican
Tossup
Democrat
Kalshi Senate 2026 — Apr 21, 2026 16:01 UTC
Alaska
58%
42%
Alabama
4%
97%
Arkansas
3%
97%
Colorado
95%
6%
Delaware
98%
3%
Florida
17%
83%
Georgia
86%
14%
Iowa
40%
60%
Idaho
4%
96%
Illinois
97%
4%
Kansas
23%
77%
Kentucky
7%
93%
Louisiana
9%
91%
Massachusetts
98%
3%
Maine
72%
28%
Michigan
78%
22%
Minnesota
94%
6%
Mississippi
11%
89%
Montana
9%
91%
North Carolina
86%
14%
Nebraska
33%
67%
New Hampshire
84%
16%
New Jersey
95%
5%
New Mexico
97%
3%
Ohio
58%
42%
Oklahoma
3%
97%
Oregon
96%
4%
Rhode Island
96%
5%
South Carolina
18%
83%
South Dakota
4%
97%
Tennessee
4%
96%
Texas
45%
55%
Virginia
96%
4%
West Virginia
3%
97%
Wyoming
4%
96%
States shaded red or blue indicate that one party is favored to win the respective states senate election, and states shaded in white are states that do not have a senate race.
Starting tomorrow, we will include an analysis on the map as well as how many seats we estimate each party will have after the election, and the odds for a Demcratic or Republican majority.