The Texas primary elections are the most watched in the country at the moment, and they could tell us a lot about the coming midterms. The close race between Crockett and Talarico is obviously the most focused upon, but smaller details and the Republican primary can also give us a better picture of how the election is shaping up.
#1: Democratic turnout is huge
So far, Democrats have outpaced Republicans by nearly 100,000 votes. Democrats have put in 638,082 votes, while Republicans are at 542,943 votes. This looks like great news for the Democrats, however there often isn't a strong correlation between primary performance and performance in the general election.
It's quite possible that this is solely because of the national stage that the Democratic primary has been given. There has been huge fighting between the Talarico and Crockett voters in an extremely heated primary, and this may have motivated more Democrats to go to the polls than Republicans.
However, it definitely isn’t bad news for Democrats. So far, they’ve had a huge overperformance compared to previous primary comparisons. There was a 60:40 ratio of Republican to Democratic votes in their respective primaries in the 2018 senate election, and an even larger 70:30 share in 2024. Election day hasn’t arrived, so Dems shouldn’t count their chickens before they hatch, but voting so far favors them.
#2: Republican turnout is old
The turnout in the Republican party, at least so far, is extremely old compared to most American elections. 85% of voters so far are above the age of 50, and 41% are above the age of 70. However, this isn’t really out of line for Republicans in Texas senate primaries. In 2024, just 3.4% of early voters in the Republican primary were under 30.
This isn’t a positive change for Republicans, as aging voters won't last for too long, but it hasn’t gotten worse from previous years. The combination of a Texas Republican primary with early voting is bound to skew older, but this is somewhat extreme.
#3: The Democratic primary will be the most important in the country
Crockett vs Talarico will decide the electoral future for Democrats in the senate. Talarico has run a kinder, broader, and better campaign than Crockett, and his unifying message is one that has the potential to sway Republicans and centrists into a win in the Texas primary. On the Republican side, it seems that Paxton will be the winner, and polling has shown that Talarico and Paxton are very close. It's still early, but a Talarico win would be very beneficial for the Democrats, who need any senate win they can get in order to get to 51 seats.