If you take a look at the majority of recent polls, you may be inclined to think that California’s next governor will be without a doubt, a Republican. Virtually every poll, while a dogfight, insinuates that either Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco or FOX News contributor and political commentator Steve Hilton will be elected in November. In a Facebook post made on April 9th, Hilton cited a poll from UC Irvine while claiming that “This new poll claims what we already knew. Californians want change, and they know I can bring it.” And while he wasn’t lying–respondents preferred him at 23%, 9% more than Bianco–it’s extremely misleading.
First of all, the Democratic primary is a jungle. Between Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Xavier Becerra, and recently accused Eric Swallwell, voters have many choices, and the choice isn’t clear. Different camps of the big-tent Democratic party are backing different candidates. In April 2018, pollsters had the Democratic vote as a close split between Republican John Cox and Democrats John Chiang, Antonio Villaraigosa, and eventual governor Gavin Newsom. However, once it became clear that Newsom was the frontrunner, he dominated every poll.
Second of all, California is a deep blue state. The last time Californians voted for a Republican in a Presidential Election was in 1988, preferring George Bush to Michael Dukakis in a landslide victory. This was also after 8 years of California Republican Ronald Reagan in the White House, so voters may have wanted to keep some elements of Reagan. The last time Californians voted in a Republican governor was in 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger won his second term. Since then, the Democratic candidate in all Presidential Elections has won the state by a margin of at least 20 percentage points. This has been explained by a variety of reasons, with a common explanation being due to changing demographics in the state.
While the polls may not suggest it, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket both have the combined odds of a Republican winning California at 9 and 6 percent respectively. It’s also important to remember that there is still time for a new candidate to join the race, seeing as there is no clear frontrunner.