The midterm elections are just nine days away, so it seems fitting that we would publish our second to last Senate prediction map. Our final prediction map will be posted on the day before the midterm elections, and we will have a follow up article comparing the results with the Kalshi odds.
Much has changed since our last Senate prediction map, mostly in favor of the Democrats. Our prediction map below shows the current Kalshi odds for each state. Toggling the "change since" option will show how these states have shifted since our last prediction map.
Good news for Democrats:
This past month has seen Democratic chances increase by the most we've seen since we started creating prediction maps back in February. Democrats are nearing a 70% chance of winning the Senate, up 25 points since we began tracking. Much of Democrat's success has come off of an unenthuastic Republican voterbase who is expected to have a weak output on November 3rd. Trump's approval sits lower than it ever has, at around -25%, and Republicans are not looking enthusiastic going into the midterms.
The state that has seen the largest shift since September 3rd is Kansas. We've covered Kansas in previous issues, but it has been viewed as solidly Republican until fairly recently. Adam Hamilton decided to run, and might flip Kansas come November 3rd. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat in Kansas was in 1932, so this is a dramatic reflection of Republican weakness.
Texas has also seen a dramtic shift since we last published a prediction map. Ken Paxton has trailed Talarico in the polls, and his controversial past has clouded his chances of winning. Texas has seen massive ad spends from both Elon Musk and Democratic donors, and is the most hotly contested seat in the country. This is partly due to Texas' emergence as a new red state following the election of Donald Trump. It went from being purple to Trump winning the state by 1.5 million votes, the largest margin in decades.
However, Talarico will have to overcome the poor Democratic brand if he wants to win Texas. It may be easy to envigor Democratics, but it might not be enough to beat Republicans, even with an unenthusiastic base.
Another state worth highlighting is Ohio. Ohio has had a hotly contested governor's race, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican candidate for governor, posted a controversial ad that has sparked backlash from both Democrats and Republicans. The ad featured the estranged mother of Democratic candidate Amy Acton, who was the victim of sexual abuse perpetrated by her mother's boyfriend, wherein the mother tells Ohio voters to vote for Vivek. This ad caused Acton's chances of victory to shoot up, and also damaged Republican odds for Senate as well.
Nearly every swing state has shifted towards Democrats, including Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan for similar reasons to those listed above.
Good news for Republicans:
This has been an awful few months for Republican Senate odds, but there are a few things that have advantaged Republicans over the past two months. For one, Republicans gained ground in Maine as Troy Jackson struggled to pull away from Susan Collins in the polls. Jackson is not the most charismatic of candidates, and his late entry into the race following the exit of Graham Platner forced him to muster a campaign in a short period of time. He remains the favorite to win, but not by as much as one would expect.
The only other good news for Republicans is that they have lost less ground in Michigan than in other states. Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has been the target of fairly successful ads from his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, and he is more of a firebrand than Democratic candidates in other states.
In summary:
Democrats remain the favorites to win the Senate, and they are the clear favorite to win the House. We will post our final prediction map in two weeks time.