According to Silver Bulletin’s Trump approval tracker, President Trump has hit a new approval low. His approval rating stands at 40.1%, while his disapproval is 56.7%. The past few weeks have seen the sharpest drop in his net-approval since his implementation of tariffs last April, and his approval rating on all issues has declined in the past few weeks.
This sharp decline is certainly caused by the Iran war, which the White House has consistently stated will be complete within a 4-6 week timeline. However, with the President eyeing a knockout strike on Iran’s oil production or boots on the ground in Kharg island, the conflict seems like it could go on for significantly longer if ceasefire negotiations are not agreed upon in the next few days.
In tandem with Trump’s approval, approval of the Iran war has also dropped to record lows. Silver Bulletin also has an Iran war tracker, which shows that the war’s net approval has gone from -9.6% on March 18th to -14.5% today. The war is incredibly unpopular, especially in comparison to the support for other wars when they began. For example, at the beginning of the war in Afghanistan, 86-92% of Americans supported it.
The Iran war has driven up gas and oil prices, and is expected to increase inflation. Trump’s inflation approval has hit nearly record lows, at -32.7% net-approval.
If Trump wants to reverse the momentum of his approval rating, he must either pull out of Iran and claim victory, or make his goals more clear for resolving the conflict. Neither Tehran nor Washington have given honest reports on negotiations, suggesting that there is a significant gap between the demands of the Iranian Regime and the US government.
Trump’s decreasing approval is a threat to the midterm chances of the GOP, who rely on Trump for his MAGA base. However, the MAGA base is not enough to win most congressional and senate elections, and Trump’s loss of independent support (now at 25%) will not bode well for any Republican contenders.
Trump’s approval rating decline doesn’t seem to be caused by outrage at the war in Iran, but rather worry over its economic implications. The war will inevitably increase gas prices and inflation, especially if Trump decides to go through with a knockout strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure or an invasion of Kharg island (which processes 90% of Iran’s oil output). Trump must weigh the possible strategic gains of victory in Iran with the disruption to oil and shipping supply chains it will cause.