On February 28th, Trump reportedly asked a room of GOP donors whether he should support Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio for president in 2028. There was an “almost unanimous” vote for Rubio.
This small group of GOP donors is not representative of the larger MAGA base. Vance was the pick of tech executives, not the classic donor base, hence the overwhelming support of Rubio among this crowd. The donors also haven’t had the greatest presidential track record in recent years. A basic analysis of Ron Desantis’ unsuccessful donor-backed run a few years ago will tell you as much. However, this anecdote still shows that the inevitable race between Vance and Rubio is not as clear cut as previously thought.
Vance has been seen as the clear successor to Trump. He’s in the VP position, the prime contending spot for a future presidential run. He has huge name recognition from being on a presidential ticket, and has wide support among Trump voters.
However, Vance has been out of the spotlight for much of Trump’s presidency. His role has been reduced to an advisor and attack dog on social media and network TV. This is the classic dilemma of a VP, a seemingly powerful position with very few meaningful duties.
Rubio’s edge is in Trump’s foreign policy decisions. Despite criticism, attacks on Iran in June and Venezuela in January did not explode into broader regional conflicts, and accomplished the majority of their stated missions. Rubio, along with Trump, was the face of these operations and has established himself as a powerful foreign policy leader.
Recently, Rubio’s chance of winning the presidency on Kalshi surged above Vance’s. Rubio has higher net-favorability than Vance, but only by around 4%. In a recent poll, Vance had 59% support among likely Republican voters compared to Rubio at 19%. Although Rubio’s favorability is well established among GOP donors, it has yet to materialize in the greater MAGA base.
The edge that Rubio may have is that he is a well known political candidate that has run for president before. Although he serves in Trump’s cabinet, he is not completely attached to the MAGA brand in the way that Vance is.
It’s far too early to tell who the frontrunner for the presidency is, but neither Vance nor Rubio is close to being a consensus candidate. They both have different liabilities, and even somewhat different bases, but the two are absolutely the top contenders for the Republican primaries.