One of the biggest dividers in American politics is the question of this country’s relationship with Israel. This argument is most prominent on the American left, especially among the youth, and has increasingly been viewed as a moral litmus test among progressives. This article will attempt to analyze the polling of Democrats, and create a realistic outlook for how Israel should be treated in the 2024 election.
Virtually all polls show that Democrats have an increasingly unfavorable view of Israel. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, 77% of Democrats believe Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza, and 75% oppose sending more aid to Israel. According to a Pew Research poll, only 18% of Democrats view the Israeli government favorably. This clearly shows that Democrats have an unfavorable view of the current Israeli government.
Although pro-Israel conservatives and pro-Palestine progressives alike would say that the Democrats are becoming more skeptical of a Jewish state, many polls disagree. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 80% of older Democrats and 57% of Democrats under 45 believe that Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. However, one thing to note is that this poll is over two years old, and favorability of Israel has nosedived since due to the war in Gaza. Until reputable polls come out in relation to Democratic views on the Jewish state, it will be difficult to discern what policy the Democrat establishment should decide
There are essentially two choices for the Democrats before the midterms and in 2028. Either they take a moderate stance on Israel, where they condemn the actions of the government and vow to cut weapons funding, or they take a stance closer to the one we’ve seen from Zohran Mamdani where they entirely divest from Israel and argue that it should be a “state with equal rights”. Remaining staunchly pro-Israel is an obvious fail for the Democrats, as we have seen with Jeffries and Schumer, and Democrats are increasingly frustrated with the establishment’s failure to meet them where they are.
However, going too far in the opposite direction could lead to losing a significant portion of the democratic base. 75% of Jewish voters say they have an emotional attachment to Israel, and Jewish people largely vote democratic. If this changes in 2026, the party loses out on a large group of voters that have historically been a solid voting bloc for Democrats. Although the vast majority Jewish voters believe that politicians can be against the policies of the Israeli government, but still be pro-Israel, they could be won over by the Republicans who have gone to extremes to crack down on perceived antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment, and have defended the Netanyahu government.