The MAGA Option: JD Vance / Marco Rubio / RFK Jr
It's very likely that the next Republican presidential candidate will be JD Vance, who leads the polls with a 35% margin over the rest of the candidates. Because of his name recognition as Trump’s VP, Vance is the obvious successor to the MAGA throne and the clear leader of the pack going into 2028. However, JD Vance lacks the natural charisma and humor that Trump has. Before being selected to be Trump’s VP, he hadn’t even served a third of his senate term, and he had little name recognition outside of his successful career as an author. Many in the MAGA base see him as too sleek and professional to succeed the unabashed Trump, and his connections to Peter Thiel and the tech elite have raised eyebrows even in the Republican party. Marco Rubio and RFK are both contenders, but they are not close to Vance’s status.
The Crown Prince: Donald Trump Jr.
The heir to MAGA is Trump’s eldest son, Don Jr. Although he’s preoccupied with his crypto ventures, Don Jr. should not be counted out of the race. He polls around 10%, and if Trump picks him over Vance, he has potential to be the nominee in 2028. He could decide to run without his fathers approval, leading to a matchup between the Trump brand and the Trump administration. Don Jr. has a similar problem to Vance, lacking Trump’s charisma. He doesn’t have a large base outside of those who will vote for him simply because of his last name, and if he wants a presidential run he must spend the next few years accumulating followers.
The Third Term: Donald Trump
Donald Trump is more likely to be the candidate in 2028 than many think. Either he can find a way to bend the Supreme Court to his will and allow a third term, or he could run as the Vice President under JD Vance and eventually assume the office of the presidency once JD is elected. Trump has often mentioned a third term, in differing levels of seriousness, and though many have interpreted this as his usual trolling, he seems to actually believe he can win. The fact that he has declined to say whether he supports JD Vance as a presidential candidate and has deflected every time a race in 2028 is mentioned could mean that he wants to run again. Steve Bannon seemed absolutely serious when he said Trump would serve a third term, and the administration may be planning for his third try. However, the fact that he is going against the constitution will likely dissuade many voters, and he could be better served exercising his power from outside of the presidency.
The Outsiders: Ron Desantis and Marjorie Taylor Greene
Ron Desantis lost much of his MAGA reach and popularity after his failed presidential run in 2023. His power seems to have slipped in his home state, and he went from being a likely presidential candidate to polling in the 10% range now. He is somewhat of a MAGA outsider, and its unlikely that he can gain the traction to take on a presidential win, especially with JD Vance in the way. Marjorie Taylor Greene is even more of an outsider after going against Trump in congress, and with her time in congress ending she may decide to pursue a presidential run with the two years she has left before the primary. If Trump’s support collapses, she could be a potential nominee in 2028.