The Michigan Democratic Senate primary has led to a national discussion on the viability of progressive candidates in swing states. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed currently has a 97% chance of winning on Polymarket, compared to moderate Haley Stevens’ 3%. El-Sayed will almost certainly win the race, and he will face off against Republican Mike Rogers in November.
One of the biggest arguments of Stevens’ campaign, especially in the closing days of the primary (which is held tomorrow), has been that El-Sayed will lose to Rogers because he will fail to win over moderate voters. This is a part of a growing argument, mostly touted by members of the Democratic establishment, that progressives will cause Democrats to lose seats that would otherwise be winnable.
However, this argument fails on multiple fronts. For one, it ignores the democratic process in primaries. If the majority of Democrats decide that a certain candidate is the best option for a general election, why wouldn’t that candidate be? Yes, progressives have to win over moderate voters. But moderate candidates also have to win over progressive voters.
Also, the argument is hypocritical. Following the victories of moderate Democrats in the 2018 house primaries, Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential primary, and Kamala Harris’ selection in 2024, progressives have been told to “vote blue no matter who”. While this phrase makes sense, it falls flat when it doesn’t work in the opposite direction.
A SoCal poll showed that 12% of Haley Stevens voters would back Mike Rogers, a Republican, if El-Sayed wins the primary. Keep in mind that these are Democratic voters in a Democratic primary who would rather vote for a Republican than a progressive. What happened to “vote blue no matter who”? That mantra hasn’t applied to candidates Zohran Mamdani, or Graham Platner (perhaps for the better). The same poll showed that only 57% of Stevens voters would back El-Sayed if he wins.
The idea that El-Sayed would be significantly worse off in the general has also been disproven. A recent Epic-MRA poll showed that El-Sayed polled 1% lower in a faceoff against Rogers than Stevens. Is there a chance that progressive candidates can appeal to Independent voters if they stay away from engaging in the culture war topics that have lost Democrats support?
Democrats should not run establishment candidates with the sole purpose of winning over Republicans and Independents. There is a ten point gap between Trump’s disapproval rating and the Democratic generic ballot. A dislike of Trump is not enough for Democrats to gain votes, which is the fault of the party’s failure to win over working-class voters who have voted for Republicans en-masse.
Perhaps it’s time to try a new strategy. If moderate Democrats want to win, they have to introduce new policies and create an actual platform. The strategy of the party since the beginning of Trump’s term has failed, and it has failed to capture the unpopularity of Republicans and turn it into votes.
Yes, progressive candidates could lose out to moderate Republicans. But so could moderates. Democrats should let the voters decide.